Aotearoa New Zealand · five-day outlook
A Heavy Rain Watch remains in force for the Westland ranges until this afternoon as a humid northwesterly flow feeds rain into the South Island’s west. A low and warm front are moving over the upper North Island today, with a complex trough and another Tasman low keeping the pattern unsettled into the weekend.
The current focus is the west of the South Island: rain continues in Westland, with the official Heavy Rain Watch running until 3:00pm today. Today’s low and warm front are crossing the upper North Island, while a complex low-pressure system spreads east from the Tasman Sea on Friday and Saturday. The broad pattern is warm, humid and changeable, with the exact placement of heavier rain still uncertain.
MetService is New Zealand’s official severe-weather authority. ECMWF charts below are supporting forecast evidence only.
Valid from 7:00pm Tuesday 3 November until 3:00pm Wednesday 4 November. Periods of heavy rain are expected, with hourly rates possibly reaching 10–15mm at times and amounts potentially approaching warning criteria. Chance of upgrading to a Warning: Moderate. Action: monitor for updates.
MetService CAP alert issued 7:29pm Tuesday; expiry 3:00pm Wednesday · official CAP alert · check the live warnings page
There is a low risk about eastern Northland during Wednesday morning and early afternoon. For Wednesday afternoon and early evening, low risk covers western Northland, inland parts of the North Island from Taumarunui and western Hawke’s Bay south to inland Manawatū and Tararua, plus Canterbury, eastern Otago and Southland. The risk is minimal elsewhere Wednesday and through Thursday.
Wednesday period issued 8:33am; Thursday periods issued 9:16–9:17am Wednesday · MetService Thunderstorm Outlook
Friday has minimal severe-weather risk despite rain or showers becoming widespread. Saturday carries low confidence for warning amounts of rain about the north and east of Northland, eastern Auckland and Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty. Sunday has minimal risk; Monday has a low-confidence Northland rain signal.
Issued 10:32am Wednesday · MetService Severe Weather Outlook
This map supplies synoptic context, not warning authority. The official MetService alert above remains authoritative for the Westland area, period and actions.
MetService’s 11:26am national forecast has showers from Northland to Taranaki, some heavy and possibly thundery south of Waikato this afternoon, clearing tonight. Coromandel and Bay of Plenty have occasional rain, briefly heavy Thursday morning, while Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, inland Manawatū and the Tararua District may see heavy showers today. Nelson, Marlborough, Buller and Grey turn to occasional rain this afternoon; Westland and Fiordland have periods of rain. Canterbury, Otago and Southland have scattered rain about and south of Dunedin, clearing tonight. Chatham Islands have cloudy periods and isolated showers.
Showers are developing across the north and west, with some heavy or thundery falls south of Waikato. Occasional rain in Coromandel and Bay of Plenty becomes briefly heavy Thursday morning before clearing Thursday afternoon; Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay showers clear Thursday evening.
Rain develops across Nelson, Marlborough, Buller and Grey this afternoon, with periods of rain in Westland and Fiordland. Scattered rain about and south of Dunedin clears tonight, followed by a cloudier Thursday and scattered evening rain in Otago and Southland.
Cloudy periods and isolated showers today, followed by occasional drizzle Thursday. Rain becomes more likely on Sunday, with strong northerlies possible.
Showers affect much of the North Island, with some heavy and possibly thundery south of Waikato this afternoon, while rain develops in the west of the South Island. The Heavy Rain Watch continues in the Westland ranges until 3:00pm; the official low thunderstorm-risk areas are listed above.
Rain for a time in the north and west of the North Island, with occasional rain in Coromandel and Bay of Plenty briefly heavy in the morning before easing. The South Island remains cloudy, with west-coast rain and scattered evening rain in Otago and Southland.
A complex low spreads east from the Tasman Sea. Periods of rain or showers affect many parts of the country and may be heavy for a time, but MetService assesses the severe-weather risk as minimal. The South Island west stays wet while Canterbury has more breaks.
The complex trough moves slowly east, bringing northerly rain to the central and upper North Island and showers elsewhere. MetService has low confidence for warning amounts about Northland, eastern Auckland and Waikato, Coromandel and Bay of Plenty; the risk is not an active warning.
The trough moves away east as a weak ridge builds. Showers become confined to inland areas in the North Island, while South Island showers become more widespread later. Chatham Islands rain clears late after strong northerlies.
Showers become more frequent, with a low thunderstorm risk in eastern Northland today. Rain returns Thursday morning, briefly heavy in Coromandel, and Saturday carries a low-confidence warning-rain signal across the north and east.
Showers may be heavy south of Waikato today. Bay of Plenty rain is briefly heavy Thursday morning, and low confidence for warning amounts returns Saturday about the Bay of Plenty as the trough moves east.
Showers, possibly heavy, affect Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay today, clearing Thursday evening. Inland western Hawke’s Bay is in Wednesday’s low thunderstorm-risk area.
Showers become more widespread with the trough, including a low thunderstorm risk today from inland Manawatū and Taumarunui south to the Tararua District. Details remain changeable into Saturday.
Occasional rain develops this afternoon in Nelson, Marlborough, Buller and Grey. Canterbury has a low thunderstorm risk Wednesday afternoon and evening, while Friday is mainly fine there before Saturday showers.
The Westland ranges remain under the Heavy Rain Watch until 3:00pm Wednesday. Periods of rain continue, and Friday remains wet as the complex Tasman low spreads east.
Scattered rain about and south of Dunedin clears tonight, but scattered rain returns Thursday evening. Eastern Otago and Southland have a low thunderstorm risk this afternoon and early evening.
The first ECMWF evidence figure is selected for 1:00am NZDT Thursday, when the next west-coast rain pulse is approaching. It shows six-hour precipitation and mean sea-level pressure over Australasia. The uncertainty figure is selected for 1:00pm NZDT Friday, when the Tasman low and trough matter most for the changeable weekend pattern. The pressure spread is small over much of New Zealand on this chart, but that does not quantify local rainfall probability or totals. Open Charts was rechecked at 11:49am and returned an access-denied page; these same-day verified native exports remain in use for their stated valid periods.
Native chart key: six-hour precipitation in mm: 0.5, 2, 4, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 250; contours are mean sea-level pressure at 5 hPa intervals.
Native chart key: pressure spread in hPa: 2, 4, 8, 12, 18, 25 and 50. Unshaded values are below 2 hPa; larger coloured values indicate greater pressure uncertainty.
The broad pressure pattern is reasonably coherent, supporting the signal for a trough and a cooler southern change. The exact placement and intensity of rain remain less certain, especially for Westland Thursday and eastern Bay of Plenty Saturday; those possibilities remain subject to the next MetService outlook and any official warning updates.